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Cryptocurrency Economics Investing Politics

Vagorithm Factors – A Bit of Insight

In creating the Vagorithm, which is still a process I am tweaking and trying to get right – I have taken a number of known indicators and created a composite. What makes it different is that I have put together some things that aren’t usually meshed and incorporated them into my algorithm.

Here are a few of the factors that I have included.

First of all, I think that one of the most interesting indicators in our short attention span world is the short term volatility index. The main indicator I use is the $TVIX which charts day-to-day volatility. While long term volatility is a factor in long term price corrections, I feel that short term volatility reflects the mind and sentiment of the majority of investors likely to make buying decisions in real estate, cryptocurrency, or the stock markets.

I’ve also included several commodities and precious metals in various ranges. Silver, gold, coffee, and U.S. Wheat are all factors that figure into ‘societal mood’.

Another factor that I’ve been trying to find an accurate way to include in the vagorithm is the number of ‘animal stories’ being put out on mainstream media. These are a known distractor from the serious political and conflict stories that unsettle viewers and lead to chaotic i.e. non-controllable, non-programmed actions on the part of the public. Rather than tracking the political and conflict stories, I believe it makes more sense to track both animal and celebrity fluff stories in the mainstream media.

As strange as it may sound – I’ve also included the number of Tweets from U.S. sham President Trump – the number is based on an average monthly number. Drumpkoff’s twitter has become an important leading indicator of U.S. markets and consumer sentiment.

There are a couple of negative factors which I am having trouble incorporating – the first of which is Natural Disasters – the hard part here is discerning how the public actually feels about forthcoming disasters – so far I’ve experimented with using twitter hashtag mentions which has yielded some promising results, but what I’d like to find is a good way to incorporate Facebook data with that. So far, I am hitting a bit of a wall on this one. Another factor which I consider a negative indicator is U.S. government involvment in monetary policy – a strong hand works negatively even if only percieved.

So, these are some of the indicators that I am incorporating – there is much more, but as I am still in early development stages, I prefer to just tell you about the milk and not the cow’s diet. Still, here are two more indicators that I am leaning on heavily…the overall performance of the tech sector and here is an odd one to show you just how  bizarre all of this is – the number of google searches for ramen vs. pho.

So, all of this begs the question…What is the Vagorithm good for? So far, I am using it for a couple of predictions at the moment – stock market, cryptocurrency, realty market, and political election predictions. Since things are still in progress – you will have to follow my results on Twitter at @vagobond

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics

Lack of Confidence in Government? Invest in Cryptocurrency.

If you, like me and a lot of other people – look at the current state of affairs and see complete chaos on the horizon – there are really only a few ways to protect your hard earned money.

1) Buy gold, silver, or other precious metals or gems. Gold will never become worthless – but as a store of value it tends to peak when governments and financial systems are failing and fall when they have the confidence of the public.  Personally, I’m amazed that the value of gold and silver have stayed pretty steady since 2013 as the value of our economy has been artificially inflated and corrected. When one sector of the economy falls, the governments are quick to pump up another sector – there is a robbing Peter to pay Paul aspect to it that should be terrifying. Gold has hovered in the $1300-$1600 range for far too long. Silver has been in the $16-$17 range. I think that a 25%-40% rise in value is on the near horizon. I don’t recommend buying gold or silver though – the problem is fungibility – can you imagine paying for groceries with gold or silver?

2) Stock  and bond markets. Personally, I think we will se a 50% drop in all the major indexes over the next two years. Multiple large banks, big corporations, and investment funds will fail. The Russian backed Trump administration has a clear policy of not rescuing American businesses – expect catastrophic losses after a couple of months of magical looking gains.

3)

4) Cryptocurrency. When governments fail, they can’t take crypto with them. Bitcoin has a built in value creator – the number rewarded to miners halves periodically with 2020 being the next halving – this should limit supply and increase demand since there is a set number of bitcoins that will ever exist. They can’t be artificially created by governments. Bitcoin and many others are not controlled by central authorities, they are decentralized. Unless they can take your private keys, your bitcoin cannot be stolen or seized. Unless there is a way to connect your name to your public key – they cannot be connected to you. Cryptocurrency is the only failsafe in a world where governments are bound to fail. Today, as the US president all but reveals that he is a pawn of the Russian president – smart money is pouring into cryptocurrency at rates that we haven’t seen since December of 2017. As the governmental chaos continues with the disastoruous Brexit, more revelations of collusion between Russian and Republican operatives, and forthcoming revelations of financial insolvency – watch for TRILLIONS of dollars to pour into Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Digibyte, and other decentralized tokens.

To buy stocks, I recommend the Robinhood Crypto Trading Platform
If you want to buy or sell cryptocurrency you will need a couple of accounts:
Binance: https://www.binance.com/?ref=13319173 (I get a little bit from your transaction fees if you use this link – thanks) Coinbase: https://www.coinbase.com/join/52d742c6c60a61f2a6000033 (Use this link and we both get $10 in BTC)
If you want to buy gold, silver, antiques, or art – I don’t really have any significant resources to offer you but definitely no matter where you are putting your money, do you own due diligence and remember that past performance does not guarantee future results.