I’m not an epidemiologist or a doctor, I don’t play one on TV. Pandemics and viruses are serious business – but it is my humble opinion that the current hysteria over the COVID-19 virus is waaaaaaaaay overblown. Yes, people are dying and more people will die – but looking at the numbers, this doesn’t seem to be all that deadly of a disease. As I write, 86,000 cases in a two month period – with nearly half of those having recovered and close to 3000 fatalities. That’s a 3.5% mortality rate – the vast majority of which contracted and died from the disease before there was any sort of understanding of what it was.
So, we have roughly 8 billion people on the planet – which means that if we lose 3% of them that still leaves way more than 7 billion people – sure 27 million could die by that calculation, but those are numbers. It seems that the majority of people who are dying are those who are a bit older – so they really probably only had a few more years to go.
Oops – sorry, forgot a zero. Actually it’s 227 million. But that still leaves 7 billion on Spaceship Earth. If the planet wants to get rid of us quickly she is going to have to become more virulent and more deadly – but let’s hope that doesn’t happen. As to people’s panic – if the reality comes out to anything like those numbers – maybe panic is warranted after all.
(Note a few days later: My friend John, who is a pretty rational guy just posted this – read it and put your head on straight. )