Category: Investing

Amazon Falling on Good News

The markets are looking for any excuse they can find to bring us into the long expected next recession. There is no better proof of that than yesterday’s bizarre news after Amazon’s earnings call. Amazon outperformed expectations on every level. Every level. Amazon has been in a freefall since...

Predictions for 2019

I have a number of predictions for 2019. They are worth considering in any event. First a fun one – I think that in 2019, celebrity stock and crypto traders will become the new celebrity chefs. In the past most notorious traders have either been criminals or niche market...

Seven Industries That Will Shape the Future

This morning before the closing bell of the stock market, I released the first baseline number for the Vagorithm Index. Today on October 24, 2018 it was 381.33(+1.64) with the number in parenthesis being my societal volatility index number. On scale 381.33 is our baseline for societal change and...

Mental Market Manipulation – Investors Beware!

Every good investor knows that there are two keys to success in the stock market – luck and knowledge. The two are intimately connected – the luck portion comes down to being in the right place at the right time so that you can discover the knowledge. There’s a...

The Age of Irrational Exuberance – Equity Markets in a Time of Chaos

First – let’s get the facts out of the way: Fact 1: Share prices keep climbing and indexes keep hitting new all time highs Fact 2: Past results do not guarantee future returns Fact 3: If the price of something rises but the underlying value doesn’t increase, then the...

These Markets Make Me Nervous – But I Still Don’t Want to Miss Them

I read something the other day that was very interesting. It was talking about how the trade war and tariffs and political scandals that should be rocking the market daily – simply aren’t. The reason, this article said, was that the money in the market which was scared or...

Time Preferance and Actuary Tables

Recently, from several different sources, I have become aware of a flaw in my thinking. Ultimately, this flaw comes down to something economists call ‘Time Preference’. My own revelation came about through coversations with family and friends, watching the action of news and technology and culture on the stock...