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Cryptocurrency

Buying Bitcoin Empowers You – Not the State, Not the Corporations, Not the Banks

First of all, I recognize that the state, the corporations, and the banks are really all part of the same capitalist entity. The police, armed forces, and other tools of force belong to the same entity. For the most part, the entire globe and every nation-state on it are firmly in control of capitalist forces now. Yes, there are variations on the capitalist theme – fascist capitalist states, pseudo-democratic capitalist states, state-controlled-capitalism states, and tyrannical capitalist states. The bottom line is that all of these states are under the thumb of bankers, corporate boards, and big finance.

Independent nation-states are an illusion that capital has created in order to keep the people focused on the relatively unimportant business of electing impotent legislative bodies, debating amongst political parties, and protesting tyrants and blowhards like Trump, Dueterte, Kim, Erdogan, Putin etc. I’ve fallen for it and quite likely – so have you.

People (workers) with more power to change get the benefit of living in countries where the standard of living is higher. Organized labor and abundant resources made the UK, USA, Japan, and other ‘Western’ nations dangerous to the capitalist system – and as a result, the people living in those regions are given a higher standard of living and inundated with larger and more powerful control systems such as the internet-entertainment complex.

The good news is that capitalism is failing. The bad news is that it is destroying our one and only planet, enslaving all of us, and quite frankly, a major dilemma for capitalists is already rising – what to do with a workforce that is no longer needed as automation eliminates jobs. Capitalism relies on consumption and control.

This is where Bitcoin comes in. There is no central authority over bitcoin. Bitcoin does not require bankers to mediate exchange. Bitcoin does not require governments to regulate trade. The true identity of Bitcoin’s creator is unknown, it is run on nodes distributed over the entire world, and it is a functioning peer-to-peer monetary system that does not require a federal reserve, the approval of corporations, or government backing.

Bitcoin is the greatest threat to capitalism in the history of capitalism. Owning Bitcoin, enables you to transact without government approval. There is no way for governments to automatically tax Bitcoin, they cannot ‘inflate’ or ‘deflate’ bitcoin by producing more. The price of Bitcoin reflected in fiat currency is a direct result of the true value of fiat declining, rather than the value of Bitcoin rising. A Bitcoin is a Bitcoin.

The simple act of buying any amount of Bitcoin, is the single most revolutionary thing that a person living today can do. Every Bitcoin transaction takes away the power of the capitalist machine. Every Bitcoin transaction, moves power from that machine to the holders of Bitcoin.

Are you holding Bitcoin? Why not?

Learn How to Buy Bitcoin Right Now!

 

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America bombs Cryptocurrency Economics Politics

During Possible Iran Crisis – Investors fled to the safety of Bitcoin

It was fantastic to watch a possible crisis flare up (unnecessarily) with the assassination of a government official and all that followed – thankfully, much to our surprise – calmer heads prevailed – personally, we believe that it was an investment ploy to control the direction of markets – as well as a trial balloon to see if assassination can be added to the democratic totalitarian toolbox.

Thankfully, the loss of life in this case was limited to those killed in the initial assassination and the stampede at his funeral – as well as an accidental missile hit to a passenger jet in Tehran from ‘friendly’ fire from Iran itself.

The most interesting part for us – was the panic in the markets. There was a brief window to make a lot of money if one had insider information about the U.S. response – and not completely unexpectedly – investors fled to the safety of Bitcoin. We can expect that any future international conflicts will bring more of this behaviour. Investors also fled to gold – but this seems to have been more of a temporary move.

From 2017 onwards, Bitcoin appears to have been manipulated with news, social media, and movements that could only be pulled off by institutional or governmental whales – in our opinion, all planned out and executed to give said government and institutional bitcoin powers, greater control and power in the bitcoin marketplaces.

One thing we are certain of is that the ‘measured’ Trump response was planned in advance and that Antichrist and his cronies increased their wealth on a massive scale during the seemingly imminent ‘crisis’ that never happened.

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Cryptocurrency Economics

Crypto Confidential – Adventures in the Underbelly of the Cryptocurrency World

It’s no secret that I love Bitcoin and have a deep fascination with the entire ecosystem of cryptocurrency. That love affair goes back to working with alternative currencies and barter systems in the 1990s and then extends through the 2000’s as I learned about the possibilities of using digital currencies to disempower banks, corporations, and governments.

In 2017, I jumped into the swirling maelstrom of digital money and began learning everything I could about the good, the bad, and the ugly of Bitcoin and the thousands of digital ‘altcoins’ that exist alongside it. In early 2018, I decided to get as deep into this underbelly as I could by finding a project, joining a team, and building a crypto token.

This is the narrative of that journey. I joined the ‘Lupecoin Project’ first as a supporter and then as a co-founder. Together we built a community, created a token, and shared a vision. There was good, there was bad, and there was ugly. I don’t want to mislead anyone – none of us were deep in the muck – we weren’t doing scam ICOs, ripping off supporters, or figuring out how to steal millions of dollars. We weren’t buying and selling sex workers, drugs, and murder on the famous Silk Road. In fact, we were just a bunch of pretty nice guys trying to build something we thought might make the world a better place – and failing miserably at it.

In Crypto Confidential, my goal is to teach the reader as much as I can about cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, blockchain, and the bizarre communities surrounding this cool technology. After reading this book, the reader will have a much clearer understanding of why blockchain and crypto are among the most important and revolutionary technologies today. In addition, the reader will learn about the bizarre history of Bitcoin and what Ethereum, and altcoins are. Along the way, the reader will be informed about the many scammers, scams, ripoffs, and strange personalities that live in the crypto underbelly.

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Cryptocurrency Economics Future Investing Politics

Predictions for 2019

I have a number of predictions for 2019. They are worth considering in any event. First a fun one – I think that in 2019, celebrity stock and crypto traders will become the new celebrity chefs. In the past most notorious traders have either been criminals or niche market – I think this year they will go mainstream. Think in terms of Rachel Ray, Anthony Bourdain, and other chefs who made the leap to stardom from the nineties to the oughts.

Alright – moving on:

1) While it sounds hard to believe in light of the ridiculous predictions, the boom and the bust, and the bear market of 2018 – I believe that Bitcoin will end 2019 worth more than $100k per coin. Adoption is happening, regulation has not killed it, and bitcoin retains the advantage of being the most useful of all cryptocurrency – and the world financial system needs it.

2) The frangmentation of the internet into national and regional separate internets will continue. We will see distinct American, European, Chinese, Japanese, and African internets emerge – it’s my belief that the I2I communication this creates (internet to internet) is going to be where the most remarkable autonomous A.I developments take place in 2019.

3) The #metoo and #blacklivesmatter movements will grow in strength – large numbers of established white dudes will be taken down for offensive and toxic past behaviour. This will lead to a bit of a backlash and two distinct movements by white groups – one inclusive which attempts to show that not all white people are bad and one that is reactive and pushes back with negativity, hate and fear.

4) Impeachment proceedings and formal charges lie ahead of Donald Trump. To distract and rally his base he will either use Taiwan or Mexico to create a distraction.

5) Marijuana will be decriminalized in the USA – this will create massive debate about those incarcerated for marijuana offenses

6) The stock market will rally in the first two quarters of 2019 breaking previous all time highs and then crashing hard and fast in the third quarter.

7) Crypto markets will skyrocket and the price of Gold will approach $2k USD again in 2019. Both Facebook and Amazon will implement their own cryptocurrencies and start gradually accepting Bitcoin for payments.

8) Amazon share prices will soar going past $1.5 trillion USD as the full scope of Amazon’s investments in health, hospitality, and transportation become known.

9) A centrist third party will appear bridging the gap between the left leaning democrats and the fascist leaning Trumpists. They will field a viable third party candidate that appeals to broad swaths of both red and blue voters.

10) The automation of fast food, self driving cars, and other A.I. driven worker replacement strategies will accelerate in 2019 leaving record numbers of low skill workers with nothing but low paying options for employement.

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics Future Politics

Going Going Going Without Moving At All

I feel like the entire year of 2018, both nationally and internationally – economically and politically, can be reflected pretty well by my own working life over the same period. So, it makes sense to touch on that a little bit.

Old big eye statue

I’ve been a productivity machine these past few months. I’ve been learning new skills, prepping myself for new careers (if I want), and discovering new tools which allow me to get past stuck points of the past. My reading has been focused and constant. I’ve been using my time running or sitting in the car to listen to podcasts and educational lectures. I’ve been writing, revising, and researching. To give some idea of my progress here – in 2018, I’ve co-founded a cryptocurrency, started a podcast, launched a new blog, relaunced an old blog, become a featured blogger for a major publication, developed an app, started a new business, developed another app and taken on investment in it, and am working with a partner to co-found a third app. All of this in addition to working hard to be a caring and present father – which means that time needs to be dedicated there – and to working at a job that actually pays my bills – because despite the fact that I’m doing all that stuff listed above – none of it is earning a dime – in fact, most of it, the education, the books, the development, the hosting, the domains, the licensing, the business registrations, the research, the parenting – none of it earns money (yet) and it all costs money.

That’s what I’ve seen in the U.S. economy, the international political world (and the U.S. political scene), and in the overall progress of the human species as a whole. There are a lot of great and powerful things happening right now but none of them are paying the bills (yet) and as a result – there are a lot of short-term thinking people who are complaining about the waste of energy, resources, and capital that these things currently look like (from a short term perspective). It’s as if my wife were nagging at me for reading too much or spending too much time on things that don’t provide for us – and forced me to go get a job at McDonalds- which, to be fair – might actually end up paying more than everything I am currently doing in the long run. It might. And the money and energy going into genetic research, industrial automation, cryptocurrency, advanced materials, artificial intelligence, and other forward thinking technologies – it might be wasted.

But probably it’s not. (And I am still hopeful that my efforts will yield more than $15/hr as a fast food worker as well.)

Planet Earth is in a bit of a dark spot right now. There are really two camps. Those who want things the way they’ve always been – and those who want things to be very very different. The hard work being put in, is yielding results. However, there are those who don’t want to see things change. They are the know-nothings or more accurately the don’t-want-to-know-nothings who deny climate change, poo-poo on concepts like Universal Basic Income and they don’t want to see anything like equality between people who have been separated by oceans of hate, racism, and mysogeny. They are in a position that is likely to lose power – so they don’t want to see anything actually change. Yes, I’m talking about old white men but more broadly I’m talking about the military, industrial, economic, government power structure and the elaborate control systems that it has constructed world-wide. Old Asian men, old African men, old Arab men, old Indian men, and also the women who are entrenched in benefitting from that system too. There’s a reason all those old white women voted for Trump, Brexit, and right wing racists…it’s called power and privelige.

A few days ago, the societal index measure I built – the ‘vagorithm’ dropped below the level that I have suppossed would be reached only by a massive collapse on the scale of a government. That level was 287.5 – we dropped below that and then an additional 18 or so points. I watched with breath held as Russia seized Ukranian war ships and protestors took to the streets in France…and then…something shifted and as I write it is a bit above 300 – still not an ideal range – but much better than collapse. It appears to have some tendency to rise – which makes me hopeful for the future.

I would like to think that the Vagorithm Index is going to go up above it’s all time high of 900+ in 2019. It would be nice to have all that going going going actually lead to somewhere we want to be…on both a personal and a professional level.

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics Investing

BALDER AIEAS The Market Crash Test Balloon – This Week in Investing

I know this week in the stock and crypto markets has been difficult for many people. I’m not one of them. My stock portfolio and my crypto portfolio both lost quite a bit of value over the past month – this week was more of the same. I feel good about every decision I made this week – with one exception – after taking sharp declines in my shares of TVIX, I sold a little above break even and missed 80% growth the past two days…in this case, I let my fear of losses outweigh my desire for gains. And, let’s be honest – I was drinking the kool-ade, I was mostly believing the narrative that the markets would simply keep going up and up and that the crash would come sometime in late 2019 or 2020.

The pullback hit a lot of the rising tech stars of 2018 the hardest. Yext, AMD, Square – along with some old favorites like Ali Baba, Amazon, Google, Netflix. Oddly, Tesla didn’t suffer much, maybe because a bottom was already in. McDonalds and Starbucks both weathered the storm nicely, with both companies actually taking gains in a sea of red. Gene editing, industrial automation, electric self-driving cars, and marijuana stocks all took hard hits.

With all the blood in the equity markets, I thought cryptocurrencies might stage a rally but there was some news timed just right – Gemini, the crypto giant created by the Winklevoss Twins, was denied their bitcoin ETF, again by the SEC. So, crypto dropped significantly.

At this point, I”m grateful to crypotcurrency for making me a better investor. Yes, my investments are down by large margins compared to a year ago, but bitcoin and alt-coin losses have made it possible for me to suffer 20% losses (or 90% losses) and not lose my head. I’ve seen the massive volatility, the rise and fall of shares and all of that has brought me back to the fundamentals. Invest in companies for the long term. Find quality companies with quality management. Watch for buying opportunities. Let winners run. Ditch losers early. Take profits when you can.

The hardest part of this week was controlling the urge to cash in my savings and invest it in more shares of Amazon, Square, AliBaba, and Yext. I’m still bullish on IBM, but sold most of my shares a few weeks ago at the highs. My investing goal right now is to take enough profits to step out of my margin account. This week demonstrated the danger of margin – luckily, I avoided a margin call, but essentially a margin call would have meant 2x the loss.

I’m still drinking the Kool-Ade, by the way. I think the markets are going to rally through the next 12 months with a couple little down turns. I’m hopeful that we’ll see a bitcoin/crypto rally in the next few months as well. The market is going to come down – but the policy makers have enough control at the moment to keep it bouncing back. The range on that is narrowing, however.

My strategy moving forward is to continue scooping up quality companies at bargain prices. I don’t think that Amazon, IBM, Editas, AliBaba, or Square are going anywhere but up from this point. I’m calling this the AIEAS strategy. I live near the town of AIEA, Hawaii. It’s the only U.S. city with no consonants.

For my consonants, my crypto strategy. Bitcoin (BTC), Cardano(ADA), Litecoin(LTC), Digibyte (DGB), Ethereum Classic (ETC), and Ripple (XRP) – or BALDER.

I’m not a classic conspiracy theorist, but I do think that there are great powers pulling the strings behind the scenes. We see some of what they are doing, but most of it is obfuscated. I believe that this past week was a test balloon to see how markets would react and what they could make them do. Yes, rising interest rates, yield curve, inflation, and more were at play – but the bottom line is – nobody that I’ve heard or read, has given a compelling arguement for why this massive crash happened – there was no obvious catalyst. More crashes will come and more bull runs. The invisible hand is at play here. We don’t know what it is heading towards, why it is making the moves it is making, or when they will happen – only that they will happen.

So, my AIEAS BALDER strategy is designed with that in mind. Quality companies and crypto projects. The bulk of my investment will be in Bitcoin and Amazon. They aren’t pure safehavens, but they are the best we have at the moment.

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics Investing

These Markets Make Me Nervous – But I Still Don’t Want to Miss Them

I read something the other day that was very interesting. It was talking about how the trade war and tariffs and political scandals that should be rocking the market daily – simply aren’t. The reason, this article said, was that the money in the market which was scared or nervous had already left.

Think about that for a second.

It means that the money that is still in the market is either sure that the markets will recover from negative news or that it is not concerned with negative news and holding on with a longer term perspective. I’d like to offer a different and much more dangerous perspective: the violent rises and falls of the stock markets since Spring of 2018 have made many investors more gun-shy about losing out on gains following dips, than on losing out on dips. It means that the risk tolerance for the market as a whole has gone much higher. Personally, I think that the Robinhood App and the violent rise and fall of Bitcoin have a lot to do with it.

Robinhood and Bitcoin in tandem have brought an entire new generation of investors into the markets. I remember hearing a seasoned trader in January say something like “I don’t know where this volume is coming from, but these traders are absolutely stupid” because the conventional rules were being broken by a large number of traders.

Let me break it down. Bitcoin bubbling in late 2017 and early 2018 brought millions of mom and pops, college kids, mechanics, builders, waiters, house cleaners, and other non-traditional investing types into an ultra-high-risk trading environment where dreams of becoming debt free, financially independent, or filthy rich were born and crushed. For those who took part in the 80% rise and 90% fall of Bitcoin over the past year – seeing a stock swing 7% is nothing. Seeing a stock swing 20% is almost nothing.

Those same bitcoin losers (and I’m a bitcoin loser as well, but time will tell if that stays the case) probably found the Robinhood App the same way I did – through the fact that Robinhood opened up to trading cryptocurrency AND stocks on the same phone app. So, where is the money the Robinhood traders are trading with coming from…there are a few possibilities.

1) From their bitcoin gains

2) It’s what is left after their bitcoin losses

3) They have borrowed, used student loans, taken out mortgages

4) They have closed down other broker accounts, 401ks, IRAs, or are using savings

Any way you look at it – this is not the same conservative money that looks to build 6% annually and sells a loser after 7%. Because they are in the market (along with trading bots) those strategies are no longer as effective as they once were. The massive market swings trigger buy and sell orders, sweep through stop losses, and leave traders who aren’t paying attention with overpriced shit on their hands or with selling at a loss and then watching a 250% wild upward swing…which brings me to the bots.

The vast majority of trades on all of the markets today are conducted by trading bots which conduct millions of trades each minute (or faster). There is no human way to beat the bots except through playing it safe and getting lucky.

So, with all of that, what scares me about these markets?

It’s the human traders using the app with their finger on the trigger. They may be exhibiting a strong risk tolerance, but they are human and eventually…somethinig is going to collectively set them off…when it does, the bots will take over and the losses will be massive and nearly instant. Yes, the markets will shut down…but as we saw with Tilray yesterday…that doesn’t necessarily solve things. Imagine what happened there, happeneing on a market wide scale.

These markets are terrifying…but honestly, there are huge gains to be made – despite that.

I’ve shifted my investing strategy. I’m not day-trading or trying to lock in short term gains. I look at a company and try to imagine where it will be in twenty years. I look at what it offers in growth between then and now and what it currently offers in dividend and yield. That’s where my money goes. At the moment there are three very exciting places I have my money parked.

1) IBM – big blue has become a world class innovator while the innovators like Google and Facebook have become boring and conservative. IBM offers one of the best dividends out there and is constantly innovating in new areas of growth.

2) Gene editing. There are three companies leading the charge here. Crispr Therapeutics, Editas Medicine, and Intellia Therapeutics. This is the area where disease gets solved, aging gets set aside, and humans potentially take the next step in evolution

3) Industrial Automation. The workplace is being automated. There is nothing that can be done about that. Brookstone, Holisys Automation, and ABB Group are the three companies currently leading the charge on this world changing shift.

I also believe that Amazon will continue to dominate and grow like the Borg and that electric cars with self driving technology will take over the automotive industry. Tesla may be a dead man walking but GM, Volkswagon, and Toyota are stepping up and newcomer NIO out of China is one to watch closely.

I’m putting my money in these areas now and in twenty years, I expect that I won’t be disappointed.

Now, a word about Bitcoin and blockchain. I still believe in Bitcoin. I think any money put into it before 2020 will see massive returns. I also believe that there are a number of great use cases for blockchain technology – but the more I’ve learned about the current run of projects – the more I believe that there is better coming and the money I’ve put into them may never be recovered. The hype got me…now, whether I get lucky from that – that’s just a matter of luck and fortitude. I’m not going anywhere with my losses…and it would be nice to see them turn into winners. Only time will tell.

 

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics Investing Politics

Crypto and Nasdaq Bloodbaths and Trump Whitehouse Meltdown

We have officially entered a September that no one saw coming. The entire cryptocurrency market is in a serious bloodbath with Ethereum taking the hardest hits. The Tech sector of the stock markets (along with the continued bleeding of emerging markets) are getting pummelled. The core of the US Government, the White House and the US Presidency have been bombed by a New York Times anonymous editorial that tells us that not only is Trump bat shit crazy and as badly informed about world events as a fifth grader – but that there is also a cadre of people he thought were loyalists who are actively working against his bad ideas and protecting us from within.

Knowing Trump, this means he is about to go on an insane witchhunt and start beheading his minions on the least cause. The US government is going to be shaken by this – even more than it already is. Meanwhile a senate confirmation hearing for a young, dangerous, and authoritarian leaning Supreme Court judge is underway at the same time as hearings on social media giants are being grilled about Russian meddling in US elections.

The markets are in turmoil already and the worst is yet to come. Trump is just getting started on the crazy train. Knowing that there are people working against him is going to take him further over the edge. Bad decisions will follow.

The worst part of it is that given what we already know about the Russian meddling in the US election – he shouldn’t have been allowed to run in the first place – but since he has been in office, he has completely reshaped the US judiciary, the tax code, and more in ways that cannot be reversed. The damage has already been done and frankly, I don’t really see a way back from the precipice. Authoritarianism looms large in the US future.

The stage has been set for a massive financial collapse. I’m not saying that it is coming today or tomorrow or next week or even next year – because the masters of finance have become very good at juggling the bills back and forth. But the bill is going to have to be paid. At the moment, ¬†we are like a bad credit risk with fifteen credit cards who is using balance transfers and cash advances to keep the bill collector from coming. As long as they keep issuing him new credit cards, he can keep up appearances. The U.S. is this person. The U.S. markets are the balancing act.

In terms of the cryptomarkets and the stock markets – if I had more money, I would put it into both. I would watch top companies like Apple, Netflix, Amazon and IBM take nosedives and I would do my best to catch those falling knives. One thing for sure, I would stay away from bank stocks right now. I would stay away from car companies and luxury brands. I would stay away from real estate and I would stay away from anything that needs a booming economy to survive. Staple foods, dollar stores, bargain markets, and things that people won’t do without. And, since you know me – you know that I would also put money in Bitcoin, Litecoin, Digibyte and I’m taking a chance on this one but Ethereum Classic.

I think that Ethereum is on it’s last legs – it’s already dropped more than 20% in the past day. Regulation and attacks from all sides have beaten it down to the point that it may not recover. It will bring thousands of tokens down with it. I’m not rooting for this – but it seems to be happening and I can see more ways for it to fail than to succeed.

If Ethereum does fail, something will move into it’s place. Ethereum Classic ($ETC), Tron ($TRX), Neo ($NEO), Stellar ($XLM), EOS ($EOS), and when it is completed Cardano ($ADA) all offer platforms which could replace Ethereum – or maybe it will be something else entirely. Nobody knows.

That’s the thing with the crypto space, nobody really knows what it will do – it’s a brand new frontier and there are no rules, there are no precedents. Because of that, there are also big uncertainties in traditional finance and banking and big uncertainties in politics which arise from that. Throw all of that into the pot with Trump, trade wars, nuclear disarmament talks, Chinese global expansion, and more and what you have is a big messy September.

I hate to say it – but Gold and Silver are probably the safest bets right now. Not the most profitable, but the most stable.

 

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics

The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous – An Honest Review

The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous

Published by Wiley Publishing. April 24, 2018

I had seen quite a few quotes from this book on #cryptotwitter (just go to Twitter and type in that hashtag) and most of what I had seen or heard had been broadly favorable. I’d avoided reading any in depth reviews because I knew that I would get around to reading it. When the book came out there was quite a bit of buzz – most of it positive – and also a fair amount of grumpy grumbling from non-Bitcoin-maximalists and those who see a future for other coins and tokens besides Bitcoin. It took me a while to get around to ordering it but finally in late August of 2018, I had a copy in my hands and dove in. I didn’t want to rush so spent about a week going through it.

My first impression. It’s a dog’s breakfast. What a mess. I’m not talking about the contents per se, but more about the lack of a bibliography, the lack of sourcing, the confusing mixture of history and opinion, and the several passages that are repeated word for word in different sections of the book. While I didn’t see any glaring grammar, spelling, or syntax errors – there was a decided lack of professional editing. I’m not sure what Wiley’s editing process is, but they need to improve it.

Professor Ammous needs an editor and he needs one badly. A good editor would have fixed the issues above and also forced Ammous to declare whether he wanted to publish a rambling opinion manifesto or a scholarly work on bitcoin and the history of money. Unfortunately, because that decision was never made – The Bitcoin Standard ends up being simply a rambling opinion manifesto masquerading as a scholarly work. The design of the book is masterful. The cover, the typeset, the layout. It simply lacks anything resembling authority.

It’s hard to take anything Ammous says seriously after reading his scathing and ignorant attacks on Mark Rothko and modern art (not to mention music) or when he calls Milton Keynes, an important economist, a homosexual pedophile as a way of discounting his work. A good editor would have removed those passages and in the process given Ammous some much needed credibility and authority. As it stands, by the time he starts describing Bitcoin and how it can be used, the threats to it, and why it is important – the reader is fatigued and ready to take anything Ammous says as opinionated bullshit – which is unfortunate.

The last three chapters of the book are quite good. Ammous shows why Bitcoin has survived, why it will continue to survive, and why it is the prime candidate to eventually be the world’s main digital currency. Unfortunately, these are just three out of ten chapters. These three chapters would make a good afternoons reading in a quiet place with no distractions. There will be several things repeated (DAO for instance) but overall, that is simply more bad editing.

If I were to guess what happened with this book it would be that Professor Ammous got an advance on a book deal after writing these three chapters and then he was scratching his head wondering how to get the other 80,000 words he needed. He started with the history of money (which is incomplete, but still quite good) and then moved on into his belief in a gold based currency (Austrian School of Economics) and how Bitcoin could become the new ‘Gold Standard’ for the planet. After this, his publisher was pushing him for the other 30-40,000 words and after months of pushing and prodding (because I’m betting the deal was signed near the end of 2018) they finally managed to get him to start submitting more writing and rather than throwing more money into a project that had already passed it’s prime (during the crypto boom from November to February) they just took whatever he sent, had a copywriter go over it, and then published the book. It just has that Frankenstein sort of feel to it – and I don’t mean in a timeless classic sort of way.

I don’t want to mislead anyone. I’m a Bitcoin Maximalist. I think Bitcoin will eventually become our species’ main store of value – on that Professor Ammous and I agree. I also think that centralized banking, the birth of the military-industrial complex, and fractional reserve banking are all three great evils which Bitcoin has the potential to disrupt. The point where we diverge is on whether history is actually a collection of facts or a collection of interpretations. I would go with facts. Ammous tends to go towards interpretations.

On the positive side – I enjoyed his history of money sections and his great explanations of sound money and time preference. Time preference might be the most important concept this book goes into. His explanations about why and how Bitcoin has survived are worthwhile.

On the negative side – the whole middle of the book where he is trying to show he is right by showing that Keynes was wrong. Totally misguided and almost unreadable. Also, despite his obvious expertise on Bitcoin – Ammous demonstrates time and time again that he knows almost nothing about other cryptocurrency and blockchain projects – he simply dismisses them out of hand without naming anything besides Ethereum. I would have enjoyed a deeper dive into the technical aspects of the code.

My recommendation: Read it but get it from the library. Read the first three chapters and then skip to chapter eight and read the last three chapters. Don’t bother looking for a decent bibliography and don’t worry about keeping this as a reference for the future.

Categories
Cryptocurrency Economics

The New Great Depression – Coming Soon

In the middle of October of 1929 – the stock markets of the United States reached impressive new all time highs. Investors were giddy and one of the leading economists of the day, Irving Fisher, said that the new all time highs were going to be the base level from that time forward.

Last week, the U.S. stock markets reached new all time highs. The most corrupt and exploitive president in the history of the United States crowed about the record breaking highs. He’s not an economist, he’s a guy who got his start in business with millions of dollars of seed money from his dad. He’s a guy who has never turned away from the chance to take a deal that left someone else screwed. He’s a reality TV star and an annoying talker with tiny hands. But none of that is important. Like the economist in 1929 – he called the top but he doesn’t realize that.

At the end of October 1929, just a few weeks after the giddy highs – the market began to crash and it just kept crashing. October 29th was the tipping point. All told – the stock markets lost 40% of their value and didn’t recover for a decade. The period leading up to the crash was a period of unbridled excess and thoughtless borrowing. Kind of like now…but milder.

Make no mistake, friends. A big crash is coming. Markets are inflated. The dollar is overvalued. Inflation is being hidden. Credit is easy and out of control. Your money and your investments are worth half of what you think they are. And, a correction is coming.

This isn’t going to be a healthy, buy the dip correction. The shit is going to hit it. The yield curve has not only flattened – it has inverted some time ago but that is being hidden by market manipulation, cash infusion, and strategic use of policy that isn’t intended to fix the problems but only to hide them.

What can you do to protect yourself and your investments? Several things:
1) Get out of cash – keep enough to pay a few months of expenses but not more – hyper inflation is coming.
2) Buy Bitcoin – this is your hedge. Don’t let the volatility fool you – bitcoin is an actual store of value
3) Put your money in big companies that aren’t going to go away for the long term. – I’m not talking about Amazon here. I’m talking about IBM and Ford and GE. Despite fluctuations – these companies are not going away. They will recover from any market chaos. Will they lose share price? Of course, everything will.
4) The Bond markets are a recipe for disaster.
5) Real Estate is due for another large crash – sell while you can or hold for long term if you can do it and it makes sense.
6) Vote for sanity – things like universal healthcare and universal basic income aren’t just for poor people looking for handouts – they are well thought out economic strategies that actually end up costing less than allowing people to get sick, starve, or become homeless.

Did I mention that you should buy bitcoin and get out of cash? What do you think will happen when all the paper money becomes worth less than the paper it is printed on? Yes, people will turn to sound money. Gold, silver, bitcoin, and Swiss francs. Only bitcoin is a sure thing. Buy some.