The State of Dismay and Disarray – the #sotu – An Honest Preview and Annotated Review

I find myself still in a state of disbelief (still) that the country I grew up in has completely disappeared from the world. Yes, the repugnantcans disparaged Jimmy Carter and kept him from accomplishing most of his goals as President, yes, they tried to impeach Bill Clinton because he was a creeper, and yes, they hated Obama because he was black – but these past two years of watching these repulsive and to borrow a word, deplorable, Republican lawmakers (mostly lawbreakers and 5th takers) dismantle the solid good of the Obama years and replace it with racism, ignorance, hatred, and manufactured ‘wag the dog’ problems to disguise the fact that their leader is one of the foulest human beings to ever walk the earth – and that he has sold our country to the Russians, exposed our people to unneccessary hardship, and cheated nearly everyone he has ever had the opportunity to do wrong by. Let me be clear – Trump is a traitor to the United States and an abominable human being. He is a foul smear on primates of all species.

So it was with great interest that I tuned in to hear what he would use the world’s biggest media stage to say. Here is what I expected – pandering to his base by bragging about his accomplishments (lies) and lots of fear mongering about abortion, Muslims, hordes of Latin invaders, and the Chinese destroying our economy (I hit it on every count here, it wasn’t hard to predict but somehow I forgot about Iran). I expected him to bad mouth his enemies in the government, say good things about Russia (surprisingly, he did not do this) and North Korea (but he did go all good friend on North Korea), and find some way to let his base know that he is a full on Nazi (oops, he didn’t mean to raise his hand that way or quote Adolf Hitler- anyone could have said that) with plenty of wink wink nudge nudge plausible deniability (i.e. it was a staffer who put a picture of Nazi troops on the White House lawn in that graphic) (I’m not sure he made any nazi references this time – which is almost wierd – if he did, I didn’t catch them)

(This section I was completely off on – I didn’t catch any of this – much to my surprise)He will denigrate LGBTQ people and belittle the bullied while decrying bullying and make threats that he will commit some violent act against his enemies in Congress. He will call for his supporters to become more aggressive and imply that he is being treated unfairly and they should take up arms if impeachment looks like it will happen. I fully expect him to declare his national emergency so he can build his wall and take more powers. This is what I expect. Now let’s see what actually comes out of it.

Here is what he did do – He overtly said – If the investigation continues, we can’t have peace or a good economy. To me that sounded like a threat of war and chaos. He used an old sales technique called Finnigans Nod to get is opponnents kagreeing with him and after three agreements – someone in his gallery started the awful USA chant and his opponents gleefully jumped in. He mentioned two black people and had them on camera while he talked about how they had been in prison and he had gotten them out – the mind control graphics of that visually were fucked up – essentially associating black people with criminals and in his other call outs – white people with sick children, heroic veterans, and border protectors.

The entire production was pretty disgusting as a display of nationalism, blind environmental destroyers, and worse. It was a wierd moment in time.

Economics Investing

Amazon Falling on Good News

The markets are looking for any excuse they can find to bring us into the long expected next recession. There is no better proof of that than yesterday’s bizarre news after Amazon’s earnings call.

Amazon outperformed expectations on every level. Every level. Amazon has been in a freefall since the end of the 3rd quarter of 2018 – for no obvious reason beyond a vague sense of dread at the veiled threats of President Donald Dump.

Here is the lowdown. Amazon has:

  • Led the way in voice devices all the way and put more Alexa devices in the world than any other company by a huge factor
  • AWS revenue grew by 45% – making them even more dominant in this increasingly important space
  • Amazon is making serious in roads into healthcare, travel, and shipping (thus reducing dependence on the USPS)
  • Amazon announced that in 2019 they will be putting more focus on investment in infrastructure, development, and hiring
  • Amazon is a world leader in AI, automation, and other technologies that are changing our world

I can go on, but I shouldn’t have to. On the challenge front, Amazon faces competition in India and China as well as regulation and economic growth issues in the same. Yesterday’s call mentioned that and mentioned the increased focus on investment – and then the shit hit the fan – Amazon briefly jumped to 1750 at the close of the market and then began a bot induced whipsaw between the 1630s and the 1730s – this was nothing more than AI bot induced fervor with hungry traders taking profits or selling in FOMO as a completely imaginary FUD took control of the stock.

The reality, is that Amazon is growing at an incomprehensible rate and expanding their reach into new sectors, new markets, and new worlds (virtual). Back in September, major investing banks were saying that any price under $2200 is too low. I still stand by that. Amazon is trading at more than 30% below value right now.

There are only three reasons Amazon could have fallen 1) irrational bot/trader interaction 2) information we don’t have access to 3) a self fulfilling recession is on its way.